On March 27, the ex-factory price of corrugated paper in many places exceeded the 5,000 yuan/ton mark, and many paper mills raised their ex-factory prices, with a daily increase of more than 5%. In addition, double offset paper, tracing paper, etc. have seen huge gains recently. Many companies including Minfeng Special Paper have raised tracing paper products by 1,000 yuan/ton starting on March 26. Analysts told reporters that the foreign waste quota has been significantly reduced by 75.35% compared to the same period in 2017, which has caused a sharp increase in raw materials. In addition, the monthly increase of international pulp exceeds 10-30 US dollars/ton, and the recent increase of titanium dioxide and other auxiliary materials has been relatively large. The combination of the above factors has caused paper prices to rise sharply.

Sharp price increase

Recently, paper prices have increased significantly. According to statistics, since late March, more than 30 cardboard factories have announced an increase in ex-factory prices. On March 27, the paperboard factories of Changsha Liyong Paper Products Packaging, Wuhan Yadu Packaging and Printing, Wuhan Longfa Packaging, and Hubei Hengda Packaging raised their prices by 5%-6%. Dongguan Honglong and many other packaging companies have announced the suspension of orders. On March 27, corrugated paper quotations in many regions exceeded the 5,000 yuan/ton mark. Among them, the ex-factory price of Dongguan Nine Dragons-A grade 75g was 5,000 yuan/ton; the ex-factory price of Jiangsu Lee & Man’s 60g corrugated paper was 5,020 yuan/ton; Shandong Century Sunshine The ex-factory price of 60-70g corrugated paper is 5150 yuan/ton.

In terms of specialty paper, double offset paper, tracing paper, electrostatic copying base paper, and other varieties all saw significant increases. From April 1st, the prices (including tax) of offset paper and electrophotographic base paper products under Asia Pacific Senbo will increase by 200 yuan/ton. Minfeng Specialty Paper will increase its tracing paper products by RMB 1,000/ton from March 26. Starting from March 26, Wuxi Shangrui Paper will increase the price of tracing paper base paper by 1,000 yuan/ton, and the price of tracing paper products by 1,000 yuan/ton. From the quotation point of view, the price of double offset paper is around 8,000 yuan/ton, and in some areas it exceeds 8,500 yuan/ton. Take Suzhou Jinhuasheng as an example, the company's latest offer on March 27 was 8,600 yuan/ton.

Analysts told reporters that the increase in the price of multi-category paper is mainly related to the increase in raw materials. According to data published by the Ministry of Environmental Protection, a total of 68 companies in the first eight batches of 2018 were approved for a total of 6.7342 million tons of waste paper imports, which was a significant decrease of 75.35% compared to the same period in 2017. In addition, since March, the prices of international softwood pulp and hardwood pulp have both risen by US$10-30/ton. There has also been a significant increase in auxiliary materials. Taking titanium dioxide as an example, it has been rising continuously since March, which has further increased the production costs of paper mills.

Hope to maintain

Regarding the future trend of paper prices, in 2018, the national waste price will continue to be strictly affected by the foreign waste import quota management. The national waste price center is expected to rise, but the possibility of a “roller coaster” market similar to 2017 is less likely. In the range of 2000-2500 yuan/ton. Affected by the continued promotion of waste paper prices, the price of corrugated boxboard paper will also continue to remain high.

In 2018, the concentration of the paper industry further increased. Among them, the concentration of coated paper was as high as 95%, and the concentration of double offset paper was also more than 60%, and the leading synergy effect was significant. On the supply side, there will be no new capacity for coated paper before 2020. The new capacity of double offset paper is concentrated in leading paper companies. Due to strict environmental approvals, the release of new capacity is significantly lower than expected. In the future, the endowment of wood pulp resources will be more prominent, and leading companies will benefit significantly.

While rising paper prices have brought huge performance to leading paper companies, the profits of downstream packaging companies have also been affected. According to data from Baichuan Information, the national average price of corrugated paper in 2017 was 4,072 yuan/ton, which was 51% higher than the average price of 2,697 yuan/ton in 2016. At present, the latest price of corrugated paper has exceeded 5,000 yuan/ton, and the profits of downstream enterprises have been greatly affected by this. Take Zhongxing Bacteria as an example: the company achieved operating income of 740 million yuan in 2017, a year-on-year increase of 26.46%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 142 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.24%. The decline in performance was mainly due to the fact that during the reporting period, in order to adapt to market demand, the company changed its original large packaging method to a medium packaging method. Due to environmental factors, the cost of the paper industry increased and the unit packaging cost of edible fungi increased.